2021 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Integrated Forecasting System of Flood Inundation and Agricultural Damage in the Lower Mekong Basin
| Project/Area Number |
21F21071
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
佐山 敬洋 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (70402930)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TRY SOPHAL 京都大学, 防災研究所, 外国人特別研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-28 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | Flood forecast / Flood inundation / Flood damage / Climate Change / Lower Mekong Basin |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Flood forecasting and the related damage assessment in real-time are challenging and currently not available in the Lower Mekong region. This study focuses on the development of a real-time system of flood inundation in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). In particular, this study focuses on the developing a system to assess flood hazards and damages in the LMB simultaneously. The developed system can also be used for risk assessment of agricultural damages for future projections of extreme flood events under climate change effects.
Firstly, we have collected and evaluated the observed hydrological data. Flood inundation simulation was conducted in the LMB under the effect of climate change using a large ensemble climate data (d4PDF) and MRI-AGCM3.2 datasets. Flood hazards and its related damages were assessed. Moreover, flood forecasting was primarily evaluated using numerical weather prediction dataset from GSMaPxNEXRA through NICAM-LETKF data assimilation in the Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia. However, further evaluation and improvement needs to be done to improve its performance and accuracy by combining with machine learning technique. Moreover, hybrid and composite approaches need to be further explored to provide the reliability of flood forecasting system in the Lower Mekong Basin in Cambodia.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The project goes smoothly as planned, especially with the support of rainfall forecasting data including GSMaPxNEXRA.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We will conduct field investigation in the Lower Mekong in Cambodia to collect observation data and to install real-time sensors to measure rainfall and river water level. The installed gauged sensors will automatically update observed real-time rainfall and water level; then, we will develop an integrated system for real-time for flood hazards and damages simultaneously in the Lower Mekong Basin. Moreover, we will also predict flood inundation in the forecasting period of (e.g. 1-day, 3-day, 1-week, and 15-day ahead) using the forecasting precipitation data.
We will evaluate the flood hazard and damages of the historical flood events and future projection of extreme flood events (i.e., 50-, 100-, and 1000-year return periods) in the Lower Mekong Basin under the effects of climate change using a large ensemble climate data (d4PDF) and MRI-AGCM3.2 datasets. We will identify the vulnerability of flood inundation areas in the Lower Mekong and propose the recommendation of flood risk adaptation and mitigation strategies in this region in order to support the flood damage reduction.
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