2023 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Evolution, misspecification and equilibrium
| Project/Area Number |
21H00695
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | Evolution / Learning / Misspecification |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
The research extensively investigated decision-making processes under model misspecification, specifically challenging the traditional Berk-Nash equilibrium (BNE). The study demonstrated that decision-making outcomes could be significantly enhanced by employing alternative learning rules, which not only improved payoffs but also increased the accuracy of predictions. Detailed analyses revealed that BNE can be Pareto dominated by these alternative beliefs, underscoring a potential shift in strategic behavior paradigms. These critical findings are encapsulated in the working paper titled "Rational beliefs when the truth is not an option," which has been submitted for publication in a scholarly journal.
Additionally, the research outcomes were disseminated through presentations at numerous international conferences, engaging the academic community and fostering discussions on evolving decision-making frameworks. Alongside this primary research stream, further investigations have been conducted at the intersection of evolutionary theory and model misspecification. This complementary line of inquiry is generating novel insights that are currently being prepared for submission to peer-reviewed journals, promising to contribute further to the theoretical advancements in economic decision-making under uncertainty.
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| Research Progress Status |
令和5年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
令和5年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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