Numerical model for evaluating the safety of products from the sea towards the realization of a marine environmental risk map

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21H01543
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 24020:Marine engineering-related
• Research Institution: Yokohama National University
• Principal Investigator: Nishi Yoshiki 横浜国立大学, 大学院工学研究院, 教授 (70470052)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 環境リスク / 海洋環境 / モデリング / リスク評価

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study has constructed models for representing physical, chemical, and biologicals processes occurring in persistent organic pollutants loaded into the ocean, and developed a simulation method that integrated these processes. An ocean simulation model of physical oceanography, which is a module of the integrated model, has been improved in the stability and accuracy of numerical computations. A model for representing some phenomena around an individual fish including intake, accumulation and egestion of the pollutants has been built and validated through comparisons with observation, demonstrating satisfying performance. In addition, considering also planktons other than the fish, a new probabilistic model has been constructed for simulating the movement of the pollutants in a marine ecosystem comprising these organisms. These outcomes enable one to produce probabilistic distributions of dietary intake of the pollutants by human.

Free Research Field

海洋環境

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、空間規模が大きな現象（潮流、物質の海水中の移流拡散など）と小さな現象（魚個体の運動や生理）とを統合させた視点を維持した。確率論を基盤として規模が異なる現象同士を統合する手法は本研究が創造したものである。また。ヒトが水産物として摂取する海洋生物体内に蓄積する汚染物質量をシミュレーションできる様にすれば、海洋環境リスクを定量的かつ合理的に提示することができる様になる。これにより、水産物の許容摂取の基準値に関して、従来よりも科学的根拠を備えた形で決めることを可能とする。