Uncertainty and Imperfect Information: Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K01406
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Katayama Munechika 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授 (20718134)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: SIR-Macro

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project analyze the trade-off between the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity using the SIR-Macro model. Based on data from 39 countries, we construct quantitative indicators of overreaction and/or underreaction under incomplete information, and estimate changes in risk perception in each country. Furthermore, we extend the model to incorporate the possibility of reinfection, analyzing factors influencing consumption and labor hours during the pandemic. The results showed that both infection shocks and policy response shocks significantly impact macroeconomic variables in Japan and the United States. Additionally, to share and discuss research findings, we host an online research seminar and an international workshop, promoting active academic exchange.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

この研究プロジェクトは、感染症と経済活動のトレードオフを定量的に分析し、政策決定におけるリスク認識の重要性を明らかにした点で学術的意義が高い。また、再感染を考慮したモデルの拡張により、より現実的な政策評価が可能となり、社会的意義も大きい。また、オンライン研究会と国際ワークショップを通じて、研究者間の交流と知識の共有を促進し、将来の感染症対策と経済政策のトレードオフの理解に貢献する。