Research into improving the accuracy of eruption predictions for Mt. Fuji through multifaceted monitoring

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K04613
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
• Research Institution: Tokai University
• Principal Investigator: Nagao Toshiyasu 東海大学, 海洋研究所, 研究員 (20183890)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 鴨川 仁 静岡県立大学, その他部局等, 特任教授 (00329111) ; 楠城 一嘉 静岡県立大学, その他部局等, 特任教授 (10549504) ; 上嶋 誠 東京大学, 地震研究所, 教授 (70242154)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 富士山 / 噴火予測 / 電磁気観測 / 高度データ処理 / マッチド・フィルタ / 低周波地震

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, in addition to micro-seismic observations and GNSS observations conducted by several institutions to monitor the expansion of the mountain body, we have enhanced the electromagnetism observation system that can, in principle, capture the magma rising thermally. Furthermore, by applying information processing technology to the electromagnetic data, a system was constructed to improve the accuracy of volcanic eruption monitoring at Mt. Fuji.
The initial plan was to set up a new observation station near the summit, but it was impossible to climb the mountain in some years due to the COVID-19 problem. Therefore, we identified suitable observation sites and performed model calculations, including site surveys on foot. They also improved the observation point at the New Fifth Station of Mt. Fuji (Tarobo) on the Gotemba side and developed a real-time system for publishing data.

Free Research Field

固体地球物理学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

富士山は首都圏にも近く、年間3,000万人を超える観光客が訪れる日本有数の観光地となっている。富士山がなぜこのように美しい山体を維持しているのか、それは富士山が極めて若い火山であり、火山学者のコンセンサスとして将来の噴火が確実視されている。次の噴火の発生地点、その様式や規模を予測する事は科学的な観点だけでなく、首都圏の防災にとっても極めて大きな意義を持つ。万が一、３００年前の宝永噴火と同等の噴火が発生すると、それはIT化された近代都市が初めて経験する大災害となる可能性も存在する。