2022 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Will tree seedling fitness and survival decline in the face of climate change? A novel quantitative approach with implications on forest regeneration
| Project/Area Number |
21K05689
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| Research Institution | Ryukoku University |
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Principal Investigator |
Lei Thomas・T 龍谷大学, 先端理工学部, 教授 (00388159)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
宮浦 富保 龍谷大学, 先端理工学部, 教授 (90222330)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | Leaf functional parity / Forest ecology / Forest regeneration |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Last year, the first year of the three-year project, we established field and laboratory experiments and began collecting phenological and plant performance data. In 2022, the second year of the project, we focused on data gathering both in the field and in the growth chambers. Important elements of this study, i.e. 1) detailed environmental data (light level and temperature) across the growing season, 2) leaf phenology of target species from leaf emergence to leaf senescence and, 3) leaf performance (photosynthetic response to light and temperature variations) and leaf cost (LMA determination) of target plants were monitored during the year. These data will form the basis of the leaf functional parity (LFP) calculations that will begin in the 3rd year of this study. We have also begun a survey of forest dynamic modeling approaches in the literature during 2022 and we have identified a number of potentially useful models and will follow up with trial testing these models for their suitability in incorporating LFP input. The forest dynamic models are intended to process our LFP estimates on plant performance (seasonal) and generate probabilities of survivorship in current understory environment and, most importantly, in a future environment affected by climate change.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
This research is advancing in accordance to schedule. Specifically, in 2022, the first full year of data required for the final analysis were collected from the field and laboratory and we are in the process of completing the second full year of data in 2023.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
In the third and last year of this project, we will complete the field and laboratory measurements and transition to the analysis of data and to the modeling effort. Towards the end of 2023, we will begin to prepare a publication of our findings and consider the presentation of our results at an ecological conference.
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| Causes of Carryover |
We budgeted an amount that will cover emergency repairs and contingency purchases that occur during the research year. However, such expenditures were not needed, hence the surplus in the budget. This surplus will be put to use in the next fiscal year for similar contingency expenses, and for additional purchase of supplies and software required to complete our project.
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