Will tree seedling fitness and survival decline in the face of climate change? A novel quantitative approach with implications on forest regeneration

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K05689
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 40010:Forest science-related
• Research Institution: Ryukoku University
• Principal Investigator: Lei Thomas Ting 龍谷大学, 公私立大学の部局等, 研究員 (00388159)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 宮浦 富保 龍谷大学, 先端理工学部, 教授 (90222330)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: Forest ecology / Carbon gain / Climate warming

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We have achieved the objective of quantifying tree seedling fitness for several species by using their photosynthetic response profiles in simulated effects of climate warming on seedling fitness (which we named LFP). Our findings suggest 1) forest canopy type has a large effect on LFP where the deeply shaded deciduous forest offer insufficient energy to sustain seedling fitness (LFP < 0); 2) simulated warming (current +1.5oC) has a species-specific effect on LFP and not all species showed a negative impact; 3) in a future with a longer canopy cover duration, LFP will decline in all species examined, some below the break-even point of LFP < 1.

Free Research Field

Plant Ecophysiology

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

Facing the onslaught of climate change, it is incumbent upon us to anticipate its impact- on forest dynamics, in this case. This study addressed the issue of quantifying the fitness of tree seedlings under simulated climate change and found a surprising diverse response to a +1.5oC warming.