Association between social restrictions and lifestyle diseases: prediction model by structural equation model and machine learning

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K10478
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Tohoku Medical and Pharmaceutical University
• Principal Investigator: Michihiro Satoh 東北医科薬科大学, 医学部, 講師 (70717892)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 高血圧 / 新型コロナ / 感染症 / 社会活動制限 / 緊急事態宣言 / 血圧

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Data were extracted from a validated insurer database of 157,510 Japanese aged <75 years. Systolic blood pressure increased linearly from 2015 to 2018. Considering the values estimated from the 2015-2018 trend, the systolic blood pressure increased by approximately 1-2 mmHg further in 2020. Using structural analysis of covariance, lower BMI and systolic blood pressure levels in 2019 were associated with higher rates of increase in BMI in 2020 among non-adherent hypertension medication users. Analysis of the Ohasama study data showed that morning home systolic blood pressure was lower, but the proportion of the patients treated with antihypertensive medications was higher in 2021 than in 2016. In contrast, among untreated participants, morning home systolic blood pressure increased in 2021 only in women.

Free Research Field

疫学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

社会活動制限下での血圧上昇は、男性に比べ、女性でより明瞭であったことから、社会活動制限下では特に女性における血圧管理に注意を払う必要性が明らかとなった。また、喫煙、飲酒、運動習慣といった生活習慣を時間依存性共変量として調整後も2020年時点での血圧上昇が消失しなかったことから、社会活動制限下の予測モデル確立にはメンタルヘルスに関わる指標が必要と考えられる。また、大迫研究の結果から、適切な高血圧治療の普及が、社会活動制限下の血圧上昇を抑制するために必要と考えられた。