Science-based targets for material use in line with the Earth's carrying capacity

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K12344
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 64050:Sound material-cycle social systems-related
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Watari Takuma 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 資源循環領域, 研究員 (10845811)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: コンクリート / 鉄鋼 / 脱炭素 / 資源効率

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study explores the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58-65% of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22-56% of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.

Free Research Field

環境工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究課題の一連の成果によって、1.5℃目標と整合的な資源効率性のベンチマークが世界で初めて科学的に提案された。本成果は資源利用に関する国際的目標設定の議論を支援すると共に、日本の次期循環型社会推進基本計画における各種数値目標の科学基盤強化に貢献する。