A study of the demand for tourism industry under covid-19 with a special reference to spatial economy

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K12480
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 80020:Tourism studies-related
• Research Institution: Wakayama University
• Principal Investigator: Adchi Motohiro 和歌山大学, 経済学部, 教授 (30283948)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 空間計量経済学 / 地理的加重回帰分析 / 訪問確率 / 観光需要 / まちづくり

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study attempts to develop a economic model for Japanese tourist destinations with a special reference to spatial econometrics (location information plays an important role in regression analysis, etc.). In particular, after understanding the spread pattern of the coronavirus, an analysis using “geographically weighted regression analysis” was attempted, focusing on the relationship between the probability of tourist visits and the movement of human flow. As a result, it was found that the degree of influence of external human mobility (e.g., tourism) differed from prefecture to prefecture. The results showed that the impact of the “Tokaido Shinkansen or bullt train” was particularly large in terms of human flow movement, and that movement (tourism) within a region was large in the Tohoku and Hokkaido regions. In terms of the “population size” of each prefecture, it was also found that the western part of the Kansai region has a greater impact on the movement of people.

Free Research Field

まちづくり　観光経済

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

観光需要は当該地域の「人口規模（人口数）」と「外部からの訪問者数」から構成されるとの仮定の下、周辺地域の影響等についてモデルを構築した。分析には、データの立地ごとに回帰分析のパラメーターが変わる空間計量経済学の一分野である「地理的加重回帰分析モデル」を用いた。従来空間経済学の立場から「地域への訪問確率」について分析を行った先行研究はない、また、人流によって引き起こされるコロナ感染の拡大パターンに注目し人々の移動モデルを構築した。その結果、日本国内において、東北や北海道など関東以北地域と、関西や九州などの以西地区では「人流」については互いに異なるパターンを有している点が確認された。