2021 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Analyzing Epistemic Structures of Interactive Decision-Making by Testable Models
| Project/Area Number |
21K13263
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
劉 水歌 早稲田大学, 現代政治研究所, 招聘研究員 (80779083)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2026-03-31
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| Keywords | Game theory / epistemic game theory / quantal equilibrium / political economy |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
First, the first year’s plan has been achieved: I and Fabio Maccheroni (Bocconi U) had a robust epistemic foundation for quantal equilibrium. It can predict and implement collective actions when only the proportions that take specific actions in the population matter, e.g., the benchmark inoculation rate based on willingness. We have finished a working paper.
Second, Tomoo Kikuchi (Waseda U) and I had worked out a novel model combining cooperative and non-cooperative games to analyze hegemony and competition between superpowers. This research opened a rich vision since it has used abundant data for simulation and testing and provides huge rooms for integrating various components (including epistemic GT). We have the technical note and we are drafting the paper now.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The first year’s plan has been achieved. Further, the work of Tomoo Kikuchi and I are much beyond my expectation. Now we do not just have an epistemic model which has “visions/possibilities” to be tested; we now have python codes that can do calculation and proper data (from various fields, e.g., political science and international trade) that can be used to test and simulate. Now we have a new framework which can integrate various components (including but not limited to epistemic GT), which opens a fruitful vision of the future research.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
First, we need to finish the Kikuchi-Liu paper. After completing the drafting we plan to incorporate more complicated components, e.g., incomplete information. This would lead to a more specific epistemic model which can be tested and simulated.
Second, the Liu-Fabio paper need to be completed. My plan is to go to Bocconi University for a two-year post-doc project and I believe the result can be incorporated into more general models. We may use data generated in COVID-19 period to test the model.
Third, I am now working on part three in my plan: combining evolution with epistemic model. By talking with researchers in Bocconi we noticed some progress in self-confirming equilibrium in macroeconomics which provided a great hint for my plan. This would be an important part of my work in 2022.
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