2022 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
A Nationwide Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 Exposure by Examining the Regional Concentrations-Response Relations in a Population-Based Epidemiological Study in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
21K17894
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| Research Institution | University of Tsukuba |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Keywords | air pollution / particulate matter / mortality / health risk / time series study |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
During the second year of the project (FY2022), we developed analytical methods to estimate the short-term associations between PM2.5 and mortality in Japan. To quantify these associations, we conducted a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, the location-specific risks of PM2.5 were estimated by utilizing a time-series quasi-Poisson model. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model along with a flexible functional form of splines to evaluate the location-specific associations. We controlled various important covariates, including weather variables, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term time trends. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the robustness of our findings. To assess and compare the shapes of the concentration-response (CR) relationship, all local CR functions were formulated using a unified statistical design. In the second stage, we used a random-effect meta-analysis to combine the regional and national overall estimates.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The project is on track with statistical modeling advancements to quantify location-specific health risks. Moreover, data from 2010 to 2016 is being updated to 2019.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
In the project's final year, we will conduct a regional risk assessment based on our FY2022 findings. Local estimations will be mapped to visualize the risks and the efficacy of the current AQG standards will be assessed using the CR functions obtained for each location in Japan. The geographical heterogeneity will be explained based on indicators of local characteristics. In addition, the susceptible population will be identified through stratified analyses.
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| Causes of Carryover |
A portion of our budget was reallocated to the next fiscal year (FY2023) towards data collection on the variables of local characteristics, which has been identified as a crucial component of our research. The rest of the budget will be used for research meetings with international collaborators and presenting our findings at international conferences.
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[Presentation] Long-term trends in mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 20152022
Author(s)
Hironori Nishikawa, Xerxes Tesoro Seposo, Lina Madaniyazi, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Makiko Yamagami, Satbyul Estella Kim, Akinori Takami, Seiji Sugata, Yasushi Honda, Kayo Ueda, Masahiro Hashizume, Chris Fook Sheng Ng
Organizer
International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE)
Int'l Joint Research
