2022 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Exploring the pathways to deep decarbonization of transport sector in the post-COVID's new normal
| Project/Area Number |
21K17926
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
張 潤森 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (50785235)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | transport / model coupling |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
In the fiscal year 2022, my main accomplishment was the coupling of the transport model and a bottom-up, technology-rich, energy system model, which had been completed in the previous fiscal year. The energy system model was integrated with the regional transport model to determine the energy service demand based on the transport model output. To meet a given transport demand, the optimal set of energy technologies in the transport sector was calculated endogenously using linear optimization while minimizing the total system costs under certain constraints.
Firstly, mode-specific transport demand calculated by the transport model was input into the energy system model to determine the optimal technology mix. Energy consumption was then estimated based on the amount of energy consumed by each specific energy type and technology combination, while CO2 emissions were calculated using the emission factors for each energy type.
Subsequently, the optimal technology combinations and costs were passed back to the transport model to update the generalized transport cost based on the revised technology mix. An iterative method was utilized to solve the convergence problem of model coupling. The feedback loop between the energy system model and the transport model was continued until a converged solution was obtained, in which the transport demands and the technology combinations calculated by both models remained stable across successive iterations.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Although the construction of the integrated transport energy model has been preliminarily completed, the scenario settings for simulating the future low-carbon pathways using the model have been delayed due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the fiscal year 2022. The investigation and data collection activities regarding how the transport system was affected by the pandemic were not carried out as originally planned, resulting in a delay in the research on scenario simulation and policy implications using this integrated model.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
In the next phase, I will conduct a model simulation using China’s 31 provinces as an example to explore the decarbonization pathways of the transport sector in the post-pandemic era. The main task is to collect empirical data on changes in travel behavior, mode preference, and mobility patterns under pandemic conditions to complete scenario setting and simulation.
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| Causes of Carryover |
Due to the pandemic in 2022, many academic conferences were either canceled or attended virtually, and many travel plans were canceled as well, resulting in some unused funds. Therefore, I plan to utilize the remaining budget in the next fiscal year to attend more conferences and complete travel for research purposes.
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