2023 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Exploring the pathways to deep decarbonization of transport sector in the post-COVID's new normal
| Project/Area Number |
21K17926
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
張 潤森 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (50785235)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | post-pandemic / scenario / lifestyle / mobility / implication |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
To explore the role of the transport sector in achieving carbon carbon-neutral target in the context of a post-pandemic world, we developed a regional transport energy model to project the future energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the transport sector by integrating a transport model and a bottom-up energy system model. We collected transport and energy data from 31 provinces in China and applied this regional transport energy model to China’s 31 provinces. Then, several scenarios were created to analyze transport dynamics with an energy focus when considering the challenges and opportunities arising from the post-pandemic new normal. These scenarios were defined under varying model assumptions of lifestyle changes and mobility transformations to determine the long-term implications of deep transport decarbonization.
The lifestyle and mobility transformations in response to the pandemic with the arrival of the new normal will lead to substantial changes in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The simulation results suggested a pathway toward the decarbonization of the transport sector through the positive effects of lifestyle changes, such as spending more time working from home and shopping online. It is also expected that the inevitable modal shift from public transport to private travel and the reduction in the use of car-sharing services will increase energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Therefore, the tradeoffs and interactions between different scenarios need to be taken into account when proposing policies for carbon neutral transport development.
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