2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Innovative Research on Central Bank Politics: Quantitative Text Analysis and Survey Experiment Exploring the Effectiveness of Central Banks
| Project/Area Number |
21K18417
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 6:Political science and related fields
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo (2023)
Tohoku University (2021-2022) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-07-09 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 中央銀行 / 比較政治経済学 / 金融政策 / ジェンダーバイアス / サーベイ実験 / 量的テキスト分析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This research project analyzed (1) how the effectiveness of communication regarding monetary policy between central banks and the public changes, and (2) what determines policy mandates of central banks. To answer these research questions, this project combined survey experiments, quantitative text analysis, and cross-national statistical analysis. In a survey experiment targeting Japan, we found that there is gender bias involved in the credibility of central bank monetary policy. Our preliminary analysis of central bank laws from 103 countries through quantitative text analysis revealed differences in mention rates by country in various policy areas such as exchange policy, currency supply, fiscal stability and regulation, and monetary policy. We then showed that the more democratic a country is, the less likely it is to delegate exchange policy authority and monetary policy authority to the central bank in statistically significant ways.
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| Free Research Field |
比較政治学・政治経済学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
「失われた20年」とアベノミクス推進、2008年大不況、そして新型コロナウイルスによる世界同時不況を経て、中央銀行(中銀)が経済政策に果たす役割と人々の注目は、かつてなく大きくなっている。他方、ポピュリズムの台頭により、独立した中銀が経済政策を決定することを批判し、政治家に有利な利下げを実施するよう介入と圧力を受けることも多くなった。この「専門知と民主主義のジレンマ」の理解を深める上で、本研究課題で得られた研究成果は死すると考えている。今後、出来上がった論文を随時英文査読誌に投稿し、最終的な研究成果を公刊するための作業を進めることで、中央銀行をめぐる政治経済学研究に一石を投じる。
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