2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Earnings and fertility choices: Evidence from the local impacts of nuclear power facilities
| Project/Area Number |
21K20131
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
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| Research Institution | Nihon University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-08-30 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 出生率 / 雇用 / エビデンス / 自然実験 / 因果推論 / 国勢調査 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study leverages an exogenous event -the establishment of a nuclear power plant and the subsequent development of related industries- as a natural experiment to assess the impact on local employment and household economic conditions and their influence on residents' decisions regarding marriage and childbirth. Utilizing comprehensive individual data provided by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications from the 1980-2020 Census and Employment Status Survey, we attempted to estimate the causal effects of policy changes by applying advanced econometric methods.
To achieve this, we integrated detailed geographic information into the household-level census data. This was accomplished by developing a method to automatically incorporate geographic information from survey area maps into a geographic information system (GIS). This innovation enabled us to conduct our analysis across a broader geographic region than our previous studies.
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| Free Research Field |
人間行動科学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
日本では、国や地方自治体が税金を使用して様々な少子化対策を行っているが、それらの効果に関する十分なエビデンスがない。また、少子化対策には、行政サービスよりも安定的な雇用の方が重要であるとの意見もある。本研究は、大規模な産業による長期安定的な雇用が生まれる地域と、多額の税収入や補助金収入が生じて自治体が住民への各種サービス（医療費助成や保育園の運営など）を充実させることができる地域に違いがあることを利用して、結婚や出産の意思決定に対する雇用の効果と子育て支援政策の効果を識別する点に意義がある。本研究活動を通じて、各世帯がいずれの地域に属するかを高い精度で分類できるデータを構築できた。
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