2023 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
A pathway design framework and development strategies for transport decarbonization towards carbon neutrality
| Project/Area Number |
21KK0208
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
張 潤森 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (50785235)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022 – 2024
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| Keywords | avoid / shift / improve / strategy / instrument / scenario / simulation |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
In the fiscal year 2023, we completed the construction of the regional transport model and energy system model for 31 provinces in China and also conducted the numerical computations to couple the two models. First, the transport demand calculated by the transport model was passed as input to the energy system model, which determines the optimal combination of transport technologies through a linear optimization problem. The energy consumption of the transport sector is estimated based on the energy intensity of each technology and technology mix, and the CO2 emissions are calculated based on the energy consumption and emission coefficients of each energy source. Subsequently, the optimal technology mix and costs are fed back to the transport model, where the generalized transport costs are recalculated using the updated technology mix. An iterative method was employed to achieve the convergence of model coupling.
Then, the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework was employed to structure various transport strategies and instruments for identifying the effectiveness and feasibility of low-carbon policy measures. Specifically, based on the Avoid-Shift-Improve approach, we set up 12 scenarios for possible low-carbon policy interventions to represent three strategies, avoid, shift, and improve, using four instruments: technology, regulation, information, and economy. The scenario simulations showed that policy interventions would lead to different reduction potentials in CO2 emissions during 2015-2060 across different strategies and instruments.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Due to a job change after obtaining funding for this project, the requirements of my new position have necessitated a modification of my originally planned continuous one-year or six-month overseas trips. Now, I am now only able to utilize the holiday periods, when there are no educational activities, to conduct research abroad for approximately three months annually. As a result, the established research schedule for 2023 has been slightly delayed.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We have now largely completed the construction of regional transport and energy models, along with initial numerical simulations. The next step involves further development of an economic model to couple with the transport model and energy model. This will enable the analysis of the interactions between the transport sector, energy system, and the macroeconomy.
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