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2012 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

プログラム評価手法の開発:高齢者問題を念頭に

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22243020
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

市村 英彦  東京大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 教授 (50401196)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 清水谷 諭  独立行政法人経済産業研究所, その他部局等, 研究員 (20377039)
橋本 英樹  東京大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (50317682)
荒井 洋一  政策研究大学院大学, その他の研究科, その他 (50376571)
川口 大司  一橋大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 准教授 (80346139)
Project Period (FY) 2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Keywordsプログラム評価 / 引退行動 / 操作変数法 / ノンパラメトリック / セミパラメトリック
Research Abstract

那覇のデータに他の都市のデータを併せ用いて、高齢者の引退行動について実証分析を行った。手法的には、データが不完全な変数を補い且つ回帰分析を行う手法を開発し、社会・経済関係、健康関係、家族関連という3要素の効果を捉えるモデルを考案した。分析の結果60歳以上で引退した者は2年後も引退のままであるが、50歳台で引退したものは再度働く可能性があり、特に男性の場合には健康要素の低いものほど働く場合に長時間働く傾向があり、男性の場合に引退に関係する重要な要素は家族関連であるが、女性の場合には社会・経済関係が重要な要素であるなどの結果を得た。この結果は"Retirement Process in Japan: New Evidence from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)", in Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives, The National Academies Press, 2012に発表された。(清水谷諭と共著)
またプログラム評価の手法として従来のマッチング手法の利点である、説明変数の分布の違いをコントロールする手法を操作変数法で参加確率を0又は1にできる時unobservable selectionを許せるように拡張した。この結果は"Treatment Evaluation with Selective Participation and Ineligibles" (Costa Dias, van den Bergと共著)としてJournal of American Statistical Societyにアクセプトされた。
その他荒井洋一氏とプログラム評価法でのbandwidthの選択手法について研究を進めている。

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

予定通りデータ分析、理論開発が進み、最終的な論文採択にまで結びつけているから。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

第4回の那覇での調査を7月から8月にかけて終え、できるだけ早くに4回目のデータを取り込んだ分析を進める。
荒井洋一氏と進めているプログラム評価問題におけるスムージングパラメター選択の手法開発を終える。その他、プログラム評価の手法におけるいくつかの理論的な開発を行う。

  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All 2013 2012

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 11 results) Presentation (17 results) (of which Invited: 6 results) Book (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] Social Security Earnings Test and the Labor Supply of the Elderly: New Evidence from Unique Survey Responses in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Shimizutani
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Economic Review

      Volume: 64 (3) Pages: 399-413

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Treatment Evaluation with Selective Participation and Ineligibles2013

    • Author(s)
      Monica Costa Dias, Hidehiko Ichimura, Gerard van den Berg
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the American Statistical Society

      Volume: ー Pages: ー

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Why Has the Fraction of Contingent Workers Increased? A case study of Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Asano, Hirokatsu, Takahiro Ito, and Daiji Kawaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Scottish Journal of Political Economy

      Volume: ー Pages: ー

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Declining Long-term Employment in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Daiji Kawaguchi, and Yuko Ueno
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: ー Pages: ー

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Who Bears the Cost of the Business Cycle? Labor-Market Institutions and Volatility of the Youth Unemployment Rate2013

    • Author(s)
      Daiji Kawaguchi, and Tetsushi Murao
    • Journal Title

      IZA Journal of Labor Policy

      Volume: ー Pages: ー

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Labor-Market Attachment and Training Participation2013

    • Author(s)
      Ikenaga, Toshie, and Daiji Kawaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Economic Review

      Volume: 64 Pages: 73-97

    • DOI

      10.1111/j.1468-5876.2012.00573.x

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models With Limited Dependent Variables2012

    • Author(s)
      Joseph G. Altonji, Hidehiko Ichimura, Taisuke Otsu
    • Journal Title

      Econometrica

      Volume: 80 Pages: 1701-1719

    • DOI

      10.3982/ECTA8004

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Factors affecting the entry of for-profit providers into a price regulated market for formal long-term care services: A case study from Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Tokunaga M, Hashimoto H.
    • Journal Title

      Soc Sci Med.

      Volume: 76 Pages: 143-149

    • DOI

      doi:pii: S0277-9536(12)00740-X. 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.10.018.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Horizontal inequity in healthcare access under the universal coverage in Japan; 1986-20072012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe R, Hashimoto H.
    • Journal Title

      Soc Sci Med.

      Volume: 75 Pages: 1372-1378

    • DOI

      doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.06.006

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Do Households Smooth Expenditure over Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from Bonus Payments to Public Employees in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Hori, Masahiro, Satoshi Shimizutani
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 26 Pages: 405-433

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Aggregate Impacts of a Gift of Time2012

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Jungmin, Daiji Kawaguchi, and Daniel S. Hamermesh
    • Journal Title

      American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings

      Volume: 102 Pages: 612-616

    • DOI

      10.1257/aer.102.3.612

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Trends in Returns to Education: A Transpacific Perspective, 1986-20082013

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      社会科学の計量・実証分析ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      石川県政記念 しいのき迎賓館 石川
    • Year and Date
      20130323-20130323
  • [Presentation] Bandwidths selection for differences of nonparametric estimators with an application to the regression continuity design2013

    • Author(s)
      Yoichi Arai
    • Organizer
      STICERD Econometrics Seminar, London School of Economics
    • Place of Presentation
      London School of Economics, London 英国
    • Year and Date
      20130321-20130321
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Option values, health, and retirement in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Mayu Fujii and Satoshi Shimizutani
    • Organizer
      NBER International Social Security Project (Phase VII)
    • Place of Presentation
      Paris フランス
    • Year and Date
      20130301-20130301
  • [Presentation] How JSTAR “Imputes” Wealth2013

    • Author(s)
      Hidehiko Ichimura
    • Organizer
      RAND Wealth Imputation Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Munich Center for the Economics of Aging Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy ドイツ
    • Year and Date
      20130119-20130119
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] An Outline and Characteristics of the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)2013

    • Author(s)
      Hidehiko Ichimura
    • Organizer
      Asia Health Policy Program Seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      Asia Health Policy Program Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University 米国
    • Year and Date
      20130109-20130109
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bandwidth Choice for Differences of Nonparametric Estimators2013

    • Author(s)
      Hidehiko Ichimura
    • Organizer
      Department of Economics, University of Berkeley Econometric Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Department of Economics, University of Berkeley 米国
    • Year and Date
      20130107-20130107
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Conditioning Variables in Program Evaluation Methods2012

    • Author(s)
      Hidehiko Ichimura
    • Organizer
      Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi インド
    • Year and Date
      20121219-20121221
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Fewer School Days, More Inequality2012

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      6th Transpacific Labor Seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      East West Center(ハワイ)米国
    • Year and Date
      20121218-20121218
  • [Presentation] Incidence of Strict Quality Standards: Protection of Consumers or Windfall for Professionals?2012

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      Asian Conference 2012 on Applied Micro-Economics/Econometrics
    • Place of Presentation
      ソガン大学(ソウル)韓国
    • Year and Date
      20121102-20121102
  • [Presentation] 歯科サービスのアクセス公平性の検討2012

    • Author(s)
      村上慶子、橋本英樹
    • Organizer
      日本公衆衛生学会
    • Place of Presentation
      山口市民会館・サンルート国際ホテル山口 山口
    • Year and Date
      20121024-20121026
  • [Presentation] 日本経済の構造問題:成長と労働市場、労働市場と成長2012

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2012秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      九州産業大学 福岡
    • Year and Date
      20121007-20121007
  • [Presentation] Nonparametric Intermediate Order Regression Quantiles Nonparametric Intermediate Order Regression Quantiles2012

    • Author(s)
      Hidehiko Ichimura
    • Organizer
      2nd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Pacific Rim Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学 茨城
    • Year and Date
      20120702-20120704
  • [Presentation] An Outline and Characteristics of the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)2012

    • Author(s)
      Hidehiko Ichimura
    • Organizer
      RAND Data Set Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Talbot Hall, Lady Margaret Hall Oxford Institute of Population Ageing 英国
    • Year and Date
      20120625-20120626
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Changing Unchanged Inequality: Higher Education, Youth Population, and the Japanese Seniority Wage System2012

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2012春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学 北海道
    • Year and Date
      20120624-20120624
  • [Presentation] Incidence of Strict Quality Standards: Protection of Consumers or Windfall for Professionals?2012

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      The 2012 International Conference on New Perspectives in East Asian Studies
    • Place of Presentation
      国立台湾大学(台北) 台湾
    • Year and Date
      20120602-20120602
  • [Presentation] Option values, health, and retirement in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Mayu Fujii and Satoshi Shimizutani
    • Organizer
      NBER International Social Security Project (Phase VII)
    • Place of Presentation
      Rome イタリア
    • Year and Date
      20120525-20120525
  • [Presentation] Fewer School Days, More Inequality2012

    • Author(s)
      川口大司
    • Organizer
      Society of Labor Economists Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      ハイアット・リージェンシー・シカゴホテル(シカゴ) 米国
    • Year and Date
      20120504-20120504
  • [Book] 教養としての経済学:高校生・大学生が生き抜く力を培うために2013

    • Author(s)
      一橋大学経済学部 編 (川口大司)
    • Total Pages
      314(55-64)
    • Publisher
      有斐閣
  • [Book] Aging in Asia Findings from new and emerging data initiative2012

    • Author(s)
      National Research Council (Hidehiko Ichimura, Satoshi Shimizutani)
    • Total Pages
      465 (173-204)
    • Publisher
      The National Academies Press
  • [Book] Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Historical Trends in Mortality and Health, Employment, and Disability Insurance Participation and Reforms2012

    • Author(s)
      David Wise ed. (Oshio, Takashi, Satoshi Shimizutani)
    • Total Pages
      472 (391-417)
    • Publisher
      The University of Chicago Press
  • [Book] 新たなリスクと社会保障-生涯を通じた支援策の構築2012

    • Author(s)
      井堀利宏・金子能宏・野口晴子 編著 (川口大司)
    • Total Pages
      326 (17-33)
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
  • [Book] 経済時系列分析ハンドブック2012

    • Author(s)
      刈屋武昭・前川功一・矢島美寛・川崎能典・福地純一郎 編 (荒井洋一)
    • Total Pages
      788 (130-143)
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店

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Published: 2014-07-24  

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