2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
The equiprobability heuristic and causality in reasoning and judgment
| Project/Area Number |
22500247
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Cognitive science
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| Research Institution | Ritsumeikan University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
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| Keywords | 因果 / 確率 |
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this research was to provide comprehensive understanding of various phenomena including biases and fallacies of reasoning and judgment using probabilistic models and several basic original ideas. First, a new probabilistic model of syllogistic reasoning was proposed, and it suggested an equiprobability hypothesis of deductive reasoning. Second, a dual frame theory based on an affirmation-negation asymmetry revealed the analogous structure of seemingly unrelated performances in various tasks from different areas of psychology. Third, it was revealed that the main cause of the base rate fallacy is not neglecting the base rate, but is assuming the equiprobability of target events, and the mechanism of the assumption was explained by the dual frame theory. Fourth, the close connection between causality and equiprobability was demonstrated through the performance of a well-known probability judgment task, the Monty Hall problem.
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[Book] 心理学研究法2認知2012
Author(s)
箱田裕司(編著), 熊田孝恒, 清水寛之, 菱谷晋介, 服部雅史, 坂本勉(著)
Total Pages
250 (149-195)
Publisher
誠信書房
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