2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A probabilistic mitigation system by eruptive event-trees, eruption-scenarios and risk assessments, evaluated by volcanic disasters records during past 2,000-year in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
22510187
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | Utsunomiya University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
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| Keywords | 災害科学 / 火山防災 / 火山災害 / 活火山 / 噴火活動 / 噴火シナリオ / イベントツリー / リスク評価 |
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| Research Abstract |
A database of volcanic hazard maps in Japan was worked out. Current version includes 160 maps and handbooks published for 40 of the 110 active volcanoes. Records dealing with volcanic disasters have been obtained for a total of 1,162 eruptions over the past 2,000 years. There were approximately 20,000 victims and over 80% of the deaths were due to volcanic tsunami, followed by deaths from lahars, including mudflows or debris flows, pyroclastic falls, debris avalanches, and pyroclastic flows. Frequency-distribution analyses for eruptions show the average frequency for each of VEI. The VEI 5 eruptions occur once every 180 years, and VEI 4 occur once every 50 years. VEI 3 and VEI 2 eruptions occur once every18 years and 4 years. We expect local administrative officials to use present probabilistic mitigation system implemented with risk assessments, eruption event-trees and scenarios results to propose robust counter-measure strategies to implement when future volcanic events occur.
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[Presentation] Japan's Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Initiatives : Work Projects of the Commission on Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters, VSJ and Volcanic Hazard Maps in Japan2013
Author(s)
Nakamura, Y., Tanada, T., Fujita, E., Hotta, Y., Aramaki, S.
Organizer
2nd Edition. IAVCEI Scientific Assembly
Place of Presentation
Kagoshima(4W_4H-P6)
Year and Date
20130700
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[Remarks] 火山ハザードマップデータベース.和英版 防災科学技術研究所HP.日本火山学会火山 防災委員会・防災科学技術研究所編纂
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[Remarks] 日本列島ハザードマップ,全120頁,火山, 35-39(資料提供),朝日新聞社
