2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Improving earthquake prediction algorithms based on earthquake clustering models
| Project/Area Number |
22700299
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
ZHUANG Jiancang 統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 准教授 (70465920)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010 – 2012
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| Keywords | クラスタリング / 地震予知 / ETAS モデル / RTL / PI / ギャンブリング評価法 / 前震 / 荷重・脱荷重応答比理論 |
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| Research Abstract |
It is commonly believed that seismicity is clustered. However, most of the conventional earthquake prediction/forecasting methods, that are also currently being widely used, determine anomalies implicitly or explicitly based on Poisson models. This study revises these methods into versions that extract useful precursory information based on clustering models.
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[Journal Article] Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results2012
Author(s)
Nanjo, K. Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T. H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J.
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Journal Title
Geophysical Journal International
Volume: 191(2)
Pages: 653--658
DOI
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[Presentation] Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts2010
Author(s)
Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D., Jiang, C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G.
Organizer
日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
Place of Presentation
千葉市
Year and Date
2010-05-24
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