2022 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Renewable Penetration, Integration Costs and the Roles of the Power Grids: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Prefectures in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
22K13387
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
ZHANG TUO 京都大学, 経済学研究科, 特定助教 (10925407)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 再生可能エネルギー / 電力市場 / 電力システム改革 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Research progress on power market with large-scale renewable energy:
1. Japan's winter electricity market prices in 2021 were analyzed using an optimal dispatch model. Results show that natural gas units have a disproportionate impact on electricity prices at different times within a day. Rising natural gas prices result in high electricity prices during evening peak demand when solar power output is low. Therefore, stable and affordable natural gas supply is crucial for the stable operation of the power system and affordability of electricity prices.
2. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to analyze the cost pass-through of fuel prices to electricity prices within a day. In a power system with large-scale renewable energy, residual electricity demand fluctuates within a day. The Japanese regional electricity supply market for thermal power generation is a central-peripheral type of market, and the cost pass-through ability of regional market-dominant firms fluctuates within a day due to differences in market power. The empirical results of the VECM indicate that when renewable energy output is high, the cost pass-through ability is weak, whereas when renewable energy output is low, the cost pass-through ability is strong in the Japanese wholesale electricity market.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The current research progress is going well. Based on the previous research plan, the establishment and debugging of an optimal dispatch model for interregional power networks in Japan have been completed. The simulation results have also been presented at international academic conferences and seminars on renewable energy economics held by Kyoto University.
Although some international travel has become challenging due to the pandemic, and some international conferences have been canceled or shifted to online formats, these difficulties have had little impact on the actual progress of the research.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
In the future, I will continue to follow the original research plan. Over the next year, I plan to establish a gravity model from the perspective of the interrelationship between inter-regional renewable energy and traditional energy. I will use spatial econometrics methods to empirically analyze the problem of regional electricity price differences caused by the consistency of renewable energy geographic distribution.
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| Causes of Carryover |
関連費用は、シミュレーション用のコンピューターの購入および学生アシスタントの雇用に使用されます。
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