2023 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
A Study of Global Value Chains and Regional Trade Agreements
| Project/Area Number |
22K13403
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| Research Institution | Osaka University of Economics and Law |
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Principal Investigator |
朱 浩良 大阪経済法科大学, 経済学部, 助教 (10906605)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Keywords | Trade Agreements |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This study aims to analyze trade efficiency within the framework of Global Value Chains (GVC) participation and assess the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on this efficiency. Using a stochastic gravity model, the research will estimate trade efficiency by examining the gap between actual and potential trade linkages in a frictionless world. Additionally, it explores how the formation of RTAs, influenced by countries’ involvement in GVCs, impacts trade efficiency. The findings are expected to enhance understanding of the prospects for further trade integration.
The initial phase of the research has successfully assessed trade efficiency in East Asia and the effect of RTAs thereon. The study also examines the relationship between GVC participation and the likelihood of countries entering into RTAs, proposing that the extent of GVC involvement can predict RTA formation. Survival analysis is used to identify factors that influence the likelihood of two countries initiating a trade agreement.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Presentation:
(1) “Examining the Economic Determinants of Deep Trade Agreements: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis” November 2023, The 22nd International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association, Ritsumeikan University Osaka Ibaraki Campus, Japan.
(2) 「深化した貿易協定の経済的決定要因の検証： 離散型生存時間分析」日本経済政策学会2023年度関西部会大会、2024年3月16日。
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
I will continue to present and refine results from the past year. The focus will now shift to a deeper exploration of trade agreements through the concept of Deep Trade Agreements. Building on earlier analyses, this phase aims to uncover the importance of specific provisions within these agreements. Recent developments in trade agreements have introduced clauses related to non-trade issues, such as environmental regulations and capital movement. This broadening of scope highlights the increasing depth and scope of RTAs across various provisions. The study will categorize policy areas within RTAs to reflect their depth and breadth, identify provisions that enhance trade efficiency, and analyze how different factors affect the probability of two countries forming an RTA across varied policy areas.
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| Causes of Carryover |
The allocated budget will be mainly used for travel, conference attendance, English proofreading services, and paper submission fees.
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