2023 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Sea ice melt and its impact on the upper ocean properties in a warming Pacific Arctic
| Project/Area Number |
22K14094
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
MENSAH VIGAN 北海道大学, 低温科学研究所, 特任助教 (10912678)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Keywords | ice meltwater / climate change / climatology / multidecadal variability / ice ocean interactions |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
We designed and implemented a new methodology to estimate the amount of ice melting in the Bering Sea from ocean data.
We established a climatology and time series of meltwater volume (MWV), extending from 1950 to 2020, the longest record of a sea-ice thickness related variable.
We evaluated the multidecadal variability of the MWV and found that it has decreased significantly over the Bering shelf since the 1980s. The decrease is especially pronounced in the coastal polynya regions where sea ice is produced.
We established a link between these long-term changes in MWV and changes in stratification over the Bering shelf.
We obtained preliminary results in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea, suggesting that the recent melting of multi-year ice has considerably increased the MWV in these seas.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The research for this project has led to one manuscript being completed and submitted to the journal "Progress in Oceanography". We could present these results in several conferences in FY2023 both domestically and internationally. The preliminary results in the Beaufort Sea indicate both that the methodology is adapted for this region and that the results are also worthy of publication. We are now going to start refining and further analyzing these results. Lastly, I am also undergoing an estimate of the freshwater volume in the Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, which is one of the regions where sea ice meltwater from the Pacific Arctic region (Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea) outflow.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
The work on the Bering Sea has been completed and a manuscript was submitted in March to Progress in Oceanography.
From now on, we will focus on improving the results in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea, by updating the methodology to the latest version adopted in the Bering Sea.
The study will be focused on the melting of multiyear ice, and estimating how the varying strength of the Beaufort Gyre and changes in seasonal and multi-year ice contribute to the changes in the volume of meltwater and freshwater in the Beaufort Sea.
This part of the study will be conducted by Ms. Yen-Chen Chen, a PhD. student in our laboratory, who has been a research associate for this Kakenhi project from the start. I will co-supervise her in this research study, as PI of the project.
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| Causes of Carryover |
Initially, we had planned to submit two papers by the end of the fiscal year. One of the papers has indeed been submitted this year, but the review has not been returned to us yet. Also, after discussions with one of our research collaborators, we found it necessary to shift to a more accurate method of analysis for the second paper.
Therefore, the unspent amount (500,000 yen) allocated for the publication fees of these papers was due to the fact that it took longer than planned to write the papers and thus we have to carry over the budget.
In the next fiscal year, we plan to use the unspent funds for the publication fees of the previously submitted paper, and of the second paper to be submitted after completing the update of the analysis.
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