2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Model development of global-coastal seamless extreme sea level and estimation on coastal climate change risk
| Project/Area Number |
22K14329
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 気候変動 / 極端海面水位 / 高潮 / 波浪 / 台風 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The study aimed to evaluate global extreme sea level changes associated with storm surges and wave characteristics under climate change. To achieve this, a global unstructured grid model was developed, enabling high-precision long-term climate simulations from the open ocean to coastal areas. Using the long-term global data on storm surges and waves constructed with this model, the long-term changes in extreme sea levels, considering mean sea level rise, tides, storm surges, and waves, were assessed in certain regions. Additionally, the study elucidated the long-term wave characteristic changes globally, both in the past and under future warming scenarios. Concerning the changes in extreme sea levels near Japan, particularly influenced by typhoon characteristics, original climate experiments were conducted using a global atmospheric climate model. These experiments projected an intensification trend of typhoons with showing uncertainties due to natural variability.
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| Free Research Field |
海岸工学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
気候変動研究の最新の知見を取りまとめる気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) の報告書において，2013年発表の第5次報告書までは，沿岸域の脅威として平均海面上昇に焦点を当てていたが，2021年発表の第6次報告書では，高潮や波浪を含む極端海面水位変化を考慮することの重要性が指摘された．本研究は，全球における沿岸域の高潮および波浪を評価可能なモデルを開発し，これまで考慮されてこなかった高潮および波浪特性変化に伴う海面水位変化を考慮した気候変動下における全球の極端海面水位の変化予測につながる知見を得た．今後の気候変動下の沿岸域の適応策策定にとって重要な貢献となる．
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