The Ripple Effects of Shrinking Eating-out Demands over Food and Beverage Industries under the COVID-19 Pandemics

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 22K20141
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
• Research Institution: Surugadai University
• Principal Investigator: ISHIKAWA Kiyotaka 駿河台大学, 経済経営学部, 講師 (90962431)
• Project Period (FY): 2022-08-31 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 生産ネットワーク / 外食産業 / サプライチェーン / 新型コロナウィルス / 緊急事態宣言

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study focuses on the supplier-customer linkage that affects the performance of upstream players in the food supply chain in the post-pandemic period. To empirically examine the role of supplier-customer linkage in the recovery pace of firm sales, this study utilizes the firm-level data including the input-output linkage information destined for food service sector. The mean nominal sales growth of firms in the post-pandemic period is positive, and the more descend to downstream in the food supply chain, the quicker the recovery pace becomes. The recovery pace in the area where the state of emergency has been declared for longer than 1 month in 2021 is 0.04% points slower than that of the rest. The sales growth of a direct supplier to the food service is 10% point higher than firms in the same prefecture and industry in the control group. However, sales growth of direct supplier who locates in the state of emergency area underperforms by 3.5% points than that of those who do not.

Free Research Field

農業経済

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本の食品サプライチェーンは、地域産業クラスター内で生産される中間投入物の割合が高いという特徴があるため、川下における産業全体のショックに対して潜在的に脆弱である点は指摘されていた。緊急事態宣言が発出される都度、外食産業のサプライチェーンでは断続的な需要の落ち込みにより、食品・飲料を扱う卸売業、製造業、原料業界などの川上でも商需要の落ち込みに見舞われたが、これら関連産業への波及を定量的に明らかにした研究は少ない。本研究では、少なくとも2022年までは緊急事態宣言による余波が残り、外食企業と直接取引のある企業群は景気低迷から完全には抜け出していないことが示唆された。