Estimating monetary policy effectiveness in Japanese economy

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 22K20157
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: NAKAJIMA Jouchi 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (20962062)
• Project Period (FY): 2022-08-31 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 金融政策

Outline of Final Research Achievements

As initially planned, I estimated Japanese firms' inflation expectations and the natural rate of interest, as well as the effects of monetary policy, using econometric methods. As a result, we obtained new knowledge about monetary policy effectiveness. In addition, to give back to society as a result of this research, estimates of inflation expectations were made available to the public as data that could be freely used by academics, policymakers, market participants, and others.

Free Research Field

計量経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本の企業のインフレ予想のデータについて、これまで長期時系列が存在しなかったが、今回の研究でそれを作成し、誰もが使えるようになったことは、当分野の研究の発展や経済動向のより綿密な把握に貢献することが期待される。また、自然利子率や金融政策の効果の推計結果は、今後の金融政策のあるべき姿について議論するうえで重要なエビデンスとなることが期待される。