2023 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Identification and Separation of Volcanic and Natural Climate Variability Signals
| Project/Area Number |
22KF0010
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
藤原 正智 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 教授 (00360941)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
DOGAR MUHAMMAD 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 外国人特別研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2023-03-08 – 2025-03-31
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| Keywords | climate / volcanic eruption / climate modeling / numerical experiments / El Nino / La Nina / ENSO / NAO |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Dr. Dogar has analyzed data from his ensemble numerical experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (GFDL-CM2.1) run on the Hokkaido University's high-performance supercomputing facility in the previous year. Dr. Dogar has written up a journal paper manuscript titled "ENSO and NAO Linkage to Strong Volcanism and Associated Post-Volcanic High-Latitude Winter Warming", which has been published in Geophysical Research Letter in January 2024. The main message of the paper is, "Our simulations strongly suggest that the post-eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by a post-eruption positive NAO phase and not by coexisting ENSO-preconditioned variability." Furthermore, using the same simulation data set, Dr. Dogar has written up another manuscript titled "Volcanic Whispers: Decoding Post-eruption Winter Cooling Mysteries in the Middle East and North Africa - Unraveling ENSO and NAO Dynamics" and submitted it to another journal.
Dr. Dogar attended the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2023 in December 2023 and the US CLIVAR's Workshop on Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly and presented these works there.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
In the past two years i.e. during the term of this budget, numerical experiments have been successfully conducted as planned, two papers have been published, and one paper has been submitted and under review.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We think that the proposed research for this budget has been largely completed with very satisfactory results. The remaining issue is to work on the submitted manuscript until its publication.
Based on the results obtained with this budget, Dr. Dogar will consider new research plans to further improve our understanding of the climate response to volcanic eruptions.
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