2023 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
A modeling approach for accurately predicting land use changes brought by human decisions
| Project/Area Number |
22KJ1856
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
Estacio Ian 京都大学, 地球環境学舎, 特別研究員(DC2)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2023-03-08 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | Agricultural abandonment / Socio-ecological systems / Regression modeling / Agent-based modeling / World heritage site / GIS / Land cover change / Land-use simulation |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
The research project has three main achievements.
First, a statistical model was developed that identifies the spatial and non-spatial drivers of land use/land cover change. This model was published in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. Second, an agent-based model was developed that simulates the impacts of policies on agricultural lands. Simulations showed that the provision of aid in restoring eroded terraces is most effective in mitigating agricultural abandonment. Lastly, a modeling framework called ATLEA was developed for simulating the feedback loop between land use changes and non-spatial actors in a socio-ecological system. The ATLEA framework has been accepted for publication in the Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences.
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