2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Understanding and constraining the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity
| Project/Area Number |
23310014
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Environmental dynamic analysis
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| Research Institution | National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
SHIOGAMA Hideo 独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
WATANABE Masahiro 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 准教授 (70344497)
OGURA Tomoo 独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (10370264)
YOKOHATA Tokuta 独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (20391170)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
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| Keywords | 気候変動 |
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| Research Abstract |
Climate sensitivity (CS), which is defined as the global mean surface air temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, has large uncertainties. In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 climate model to investigate the parametric uncertainty of CS. The shortwave cloud feedback (SWcld) dominated the variations in CS. To explore both the parametric and structural uncertainties of CS, we also proposed the multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE). We used eight multi-physics ensemble (MPE) models in which the MIROC5 physics schemes were replaced by those of MIROC3. MPMPE consisted of PPE for each MPE model. Coupling between low- and mid-level clouds controlled the differences in the parametric spread of SWcld among the MPE models.
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[Journal Article] Perturbed Physics Ensemble using the MIROC5 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM without Flux Corrections : Experimental Design and Results2012
Author(s)
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Youichi Kamae, Ryouta O'ishi, Rei Nobui, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
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Journal Title
Climate Dynamics
Volume: 39 (12)
Pages: 3041-3056
Peer Reviewed
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[Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2012
Author(s)
Tokuta Yokohata, Annan J.D., Collins M., Jackson C.S., Tobis M., Webb M.J., Hideo Shiogama, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Hargreaves J.C.
Organizer
Planet Under Pressure 2012
Place of Presentation
London, UK.
Year and Date
20120326-29
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[Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles2012
Author(s)
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Youichi Kamae, Rei Nobui, James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahide Kimoto
Organizer
WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
Place of Presentation
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Year and Date
20120305-09
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[Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2012
Author(s)
Tokuta Yokohata, Annan J.D., Collins M., Jackson C.S., Tobis, Webb M.J., Hideo Shiogama, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori , Hargreaves J.C.
Organizer
WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
Place of Presentation
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Year and Date
20120305-09
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[Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of feedback, adjustment and climate sensitivity2012
Author(s)
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Youichi Kamae, James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, Masahide Kimoto
Organizer
EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
Place of Presentation
Universite Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Paris, France
Year and Date
2012-05-30
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[Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約2011
Author(s)
塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
Organizer
日本気象学会 2011年度秋季大会
Place of Presentation
名古屋
Year and Date
20111116-18
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[Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約2011
Author(s)
塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
Organizer
「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
Place of Presentation
宇治
Year and Date
20111108-09
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[Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM2011
Author(s)
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
Organizer
World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
Place of Presentation
Denver
Year and Date
20111024-28
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[Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM2011
Author(s)
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
Organizer
11th European Meteorological Society /10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology
Place of Presentation
Berlin,Germany
Year and Date
20110912-16
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[Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性2011
Author(s)
塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩, 吉森正和, 小倉知夫, 横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
Organizer
日本気象学会 2011年度春季大会
Place of Presentation
東京
Year and Date
20110518-21
