Prediction and detection of climate warming impact on species diversity of ferns

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 23310028
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental impact assessment/Environmental policy
• Research Institution: Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: TANAKA Nobuyuki 独立行政法人森林総合研究所, 北海道支所, 地域研究監 (80353762)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): MATSUI Tetsuya 森林総合研究所, 植物生態研究領域, チーム長 (20414493)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 植物生態学 / 分布予測モデル / 分布移動 / モニタリング / 地理情報システム(GIS) / 潜在生育域 / 適域 / 植生調査

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to predict and detect impacts of climate warming on distributions of ferns in Japan, the following four themes have been studies. (1) Statistical models using climatic data were developed for 7 fern species to predict their potential and suitable habitats under future climates. (2) Climatic data from 20 GCMs were compared to assess the uncertainty in predicting habitats of species. (3) Sixty two vegetation survey plots were set up along elevational gradients of valleys and ridges on different aspects to detect changes of fern distributions in Mt. Tsukuba with vegetation sensitive to climate warming. (4) Thirty vegetation survey plots were set up in Niseko mountains with sensitive vegetation in Hokkaido.

Free Research Field

森林