Incertitude in Disaster Sciences and Scientists' Responsibilities: A Case Study of the L'Aquila Earthquake Trial

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 23510219
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Natural disaster science
• Research Institution: Keio University (2013-2014); The University of Tokyo (2011-2012)
• Principal Investigator: OKI Satoko 慶應義塾大学, 環境情報学部, 准教授 (40443337)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): NAKAYACHI Kazuya 同志社大学, 心理学部, 教授 (50212105) ; YOKOYAMA Hiromi 東京大学大学院, 理学系研究科, 准教授 (50401708)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): KOKETSU Kazuki 東京大学, 地震研究所, 教授 (90134634)
• Research Collaborator: TOMARI Jiro ; KUWABARA Eiji
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 災害情報 / 地震災害 / イタリア裁判 / 科学コミュニケーション / リスク・コミュニケーション / 刑事裁判

Outline of Final Research Achievements

What disaster sciences are expected by the society is to prevent or mitigate future natural disasters, and therefore it is necessary to foresee natural disasters. However, various constraints often make the foreseeing difficult so that there is a high incertitude in the social contribution of disaster sciences. If scientists overstep this limitation, they will be held even criminally responsible. The L'Aquila trial in Italy is such a recent example and so we have performed data collections, hearing investigations, analyses of the reasons for judgement, etc., to explore the incertitude of disaster sciences and scientists’ responsibilities.　As a result, we concluded that the casualties during the L'Aquila earthquake were mainly due to a careless "safety declaration" by the vice-director of the Civil Protection Agency, where the incertitude of disaster sciences had never been considered. News media which reported only this "safety declaration" were also responsible for the casualties.

Free Research Field

地震学