Multiple Methods Approaching the Dynamics of Nuclear Proliferation

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 23530206
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: International relations
• Research Institution: Osaka International University
• Principal Investigator: SEJIMA Makoto 大阪国際大学, 公私立大学の部局等, 教授 (60258093)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-28 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 政治学 / 国際関係論 / 核拡散 / コンピュータ・シミュレーション

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Nuclear proliferation is a serious global issue. Many scholars identified a number of independent variables of nuclear decisions. Yet there is no consensus about which factors are the most important and how each factors interact with each other. This research analyzed the dynamics of nuclear proliferation using the computer simulation, based upon the epistemology that the current global issues are mutually interconnected and a variety of agents are involved in those issues. It extracted factors influencing nuclear proliferation by reviewing the existing qualitative and quantitative studies. Then it constructed a computer simulation model of dependence and conflicts, including such factors as external security threat, trade relations, and political regimes. Adding other factors, the simulation succeeded in reproducing the world we observed from the year of 1950 up to 200. These other factors include learning and reputation, which must be further examined in the future.

Free Research Field

国際政治学