International Comparisons on the GDP Volatility and Inventory Fluctuations

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 23530221
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Hiroshima University
• Principal Investigator: GINAMA ISAMU 広島大学, 社会(科)学研究科, 教授 (30127758)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): ODAKI Mitsuhiro 広島大学, 社会科学研究科, 教授 (00194564)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 在庫投資 / 生産平準化 / 単位根検定 / 内生的構造変化 / ブートストラップ法 / モンテカルロ実験 / 信頼区間 / 分散比

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Macroeconomic inventory theory has traditionally been based on the production smoothing hypothesis of inventory investment. This theory, however, has been repeatedly rejected in empirical studies on G7 countires since the beginning of the 1980s. In this research, the statistical methods of unit root testing procedures form the initial stage to make the method used statistically better acceptable. The confidence intervals for the relative variance of the production and sales are estimated for G7 countries to confirm the existence of the contradiction between the theory and the empirical evidence. It was derived that the results of statistical estimations for the non-OECD countries show, in general, different( production smoothing or indefinite) results. The data for The other OECD countries, the NOn-OECD countries, the NIES and the BRICS countries were analyzed to expand the empirical findings which have been accumulated in this field.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学、計量経済学