2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Balance of payments imbalances and the global economy
| Project/Area Number |
23530357
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
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| Research Institution | Seikei University |
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Principal Investigator |
ONO Masanori 成蹊大学, 経済学部, 教授 (60302311)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2013
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| Keywords | 国際収支 / 国際貿易 / 経済発展 |
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| Research Abstract |
The first paper classifies 175 countries over a period of just 30 years according to the balance of payments stages that are frequently used in proposing a hypothesis that the stage depends on the progression in a nation's development. Using a nonparametric estimation, this investigation demonstrates that a nation's stage in the balance of payments has a non-monotonic relationship with its economic development, and that a country at the stage of immature creditor-lender enjoys a higher GDP per capita than at any other stage in its development. The second paper investigates Japanese trade to see whether the J/S-curve phenomenon between net exports and the terms of trade is observed in the data. Based on the results of a VAR stability test, the aggregate trade data are endogenously split into three sub-period data sets, with the J/S-curve present in the last two. The J/S-curve may stem from the increasing share of China and the oil-exporting countries in Japanese trade.
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