Economic Analysis of Sustainability of Economy by Accepting More Immigrants in Japan

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 23530358
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Public finance/Monetary economics
• Research Institution: University of Tsukuba
• Principal Investigator: NAITO Hisahiro 筑波大学, 人文社会系, 准教授 (00335390)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 移民受け入れ / 社会保障 / 持続可能性 / 大規模シミュレーション

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Recently, in Japan, a policy to increase the immigrant-native ratio is seriously discussed to increase the sustainability of the current social security system. In this research, I developed a large-scale simulation model by extending the model developed by Auerbach-Kotlikoff. Using this simulation model, I analyzed the effect of increasing immigrant-native ratio on economic welfare by calibrating the US economy. In the US, the immigrant-native ratio increased by 10 percentage points in the past 40 years. In this simulation, I assume that this ratio increases by another 10 percentage point within the next 80 years. My simulation analysis shows that the welfare gain of increasing immigrant-native ratio another 10 percentage point is equivalent to 15% of the initial GDP. At the new equilibrium the capital stock per capita will increase by 20 percentage point. The simulation analysis shows that the welfare gain of increasing immigrant-native ratio is substantial.

Free Research Field

公共経済学