Welfare Analysis of Tax and Social Security Systems in Aging and Depopulating Societies

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 23530370
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Public finance/Monetary economics
• Research Institution: Okayama University
• Principal Investigator: OKAMOTO Akira 岡山大学, 社会文化科学研究科, 教授 (10294399)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): YOSHINARI Nomura 岡山大学, 大学院自然科学研究科, 准教授 (70274496)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 少子高齢化 / 人口減少 / 児童手当 / 年金改革 / パレート改善 / シミュレーション分析 / シルバー民主主義 / 政治的実現可能性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Japan is currently facing an aging population and fewer children, and it is forecasted that this trend will continue after this. This research project has analyzed the effects of the family policy of child allowances, using an extended lifecycle simulation model with endogenous fertility. Simulation results show that the policy of increases in government child subsides is desirable from the long-run perspective because the policy can improve the welfare of all generations by appropriate fund transfers. However, the analysis also suggests that the recommended family policy is difficult to be implemented under the current Japanese voting system, which reflects the situation that is often criticized as the "Silver Democracy."

Free Research Field

公共経済学