2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

A study on social acceptance and business feasibility for development of seafloor massive sulfide

Research Project

Project/Area Number	23656546
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Research Field	Naval and maritime engineering
Research Institution	The University of Tokyo
Principal Investigator	TABETA Shigeru 東京大学, 新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (40262406)
Project Period (FY)	2011 – 2012
Keywords	海底熱水鉱床 / 社会受容性 / 環境リスク / Triple-I / 事業価値 / リアルオプション
Research Abstract	A questionnaire survey was conducted about the environmental risks due to the development of seafloor massive sulfide. The results show that the non-specialists feel greater environmental risks than the specialists. The sustainability of the development is investigated by using an inclusive impact index considering both the environmental and the economic factors, and the requirements of the sustainable development are shown for the damaged area and the ratio of species extinction. The business feasibility of a SMS development project is studied, in which the uncertainty of environmental risk is taken into account by quantifying of experts' opinions. The real options valuations considering decision-making options of abandon and deferment were carried out for development scenarios. It is clarified that the options values are significant and that the buisiness will be established more easily when the baseline survey for environmental impacts is carried out in earlier stage of the project.