2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Constructing an alert system of violations of the normative axiom of probability using a text-corpus
| Project/Area Number |
23720201
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Linguistics
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo (2012-2013)
Aoyama Gakuin University (2011) |
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Principal Investigator |
WAJIMA Yuichiro 東京大学, 大学院情報学環, 特任助教 (20572093)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2013
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| Keywords | 言語心理学 / 確率判断 / 認知科学 / 言語コーパス |
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| Research Abstract |
This study aims to explain the conjunction fallacy (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) in terms of degree of confirmation (Crupi, Tentori, & Gonzalez, 2007) by employing corpus data analysis. To accomplish this, we calculated indexes of the degrees of confirmation from the British National Corpus and fitted them to data of the previous study (Shafir et al., 1990). The results show that a major index of the degree of confirmation (Crupi et al., 2007) can significantly predict the conjunction fallacy, indicating a relationship between the conjunction fallacy and degree of confirmation as well as the importance of corpus data to explain biases in judgment.
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Research Products
(4 results)
