2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

A research on thedeterminants of the historical fertility transition

Research Project

Project/Area Number	23730241
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Research Field	Applied economics
Research Institution	Nagoya City University
Principal Investigator	KIMURA Masako 名古屋市立大学, 大学院・経済学研究科, 講師 (90546730)
Project Period (FY)	2011 – 2012
Keywords	出生率 / 世代重複モデル
Research Abstract	I have conducted the following two analyses on the historical fertility transition. First, I have developed a two-sector overlapping-generations model with gender heterogeneity. In contrast to existing models in the literature, the model is tractable in incorporating various shocks and assessing the effects of them. Second, I have developed a growth model explaining both micro evidence and macro evidence on the long-run fertility behavior. The simulated model replicates the fact that (i) the average fertility rate exhibits hump-shaped dynamics and (ii) there was a positive association between income and fertility across households in the pre-industrial era, whereas a clear association does not exist, positive or negative, in the modernera.