2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Expectation index anomaly and macroeconomics

Research Project

Project/Area Number	23730289
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Research Field	Economic policy
Research Institution	Kyoto Sangyo University
Principal Investigator	TERAI Akira 京都産業大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (20387989)
Project Period (FY)	2011 – 2013
Keywords	日本経済 / 経済政策 / 経済事情 / 経済理論 / 経済統計学 / マクロ経済学 / 期待インフレ率 / 選挙制度
Research Abstract	In this research, I performed a theory and empirical analysis of inflation expectation. First, I used Monte Carlo simulation to compute the results the candidates' preferences bring in an election system. I found that in a single-seat constituency system, an inflated number of seats are won compared to that implied by the cube rule. In the proportional representation system, approval ratings are fairly reflected in the number of seats won. Second, under the assumption that the respondent's distribution of inflation expectation has come from "mixture distribution," I developed the method to generate the inflation expectation series. I found that the series is superior to the existing one with respect to rationality.

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