2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
23730298
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
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| Research Institution | Hiroshima University |
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Principal Investigator |
ARAI Real 広島大学, 社会(科)学研究科, 特任助教 (70590462)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2013
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| Keywords | 財政の維持可能性 / 財政学 / 財政政策 / マクロ経済 |
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| Research Abstract |
We obtain two findings through quantitative analyses. First, the primary deficit cannot be sustained unless the rate of economic growth is unrealistically high, which implies that Japan's government needs to achieve a positive primary balance in the long run. Second, even if sufficient size of primary surplus can be maintained for fiscal sustainability, the amount of physical capital in Japan may substantially decline.
We also investigate effects of public debt and fiscal policy under the situations in which government expenditure is productive or a financial market is imperfect. These studies imply that such factors may have important roles on analysis of Japan's fiscal stance in future. We should consider them to investigate the future fiscal stance.
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