2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Process study on decadal variations of the North Pacific oceanic fronts using initialized hindcast data
| Project/Area Number |
23740362
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
MOCHIZUKI Takashi 独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境変動領域, 特任主任研究員 (00450776)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2013
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| Keywords | 地球温暖化 / 気候予測 / データ同化 / 太平洋十年規模振動 / 大西洋数十年規模振動 / 海洋フロント / アリューシャン低気圧 / 大気海洋相互作用 |
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| Research Abstract |
By analyzing initialized hindcast data together with the observations, we have clarified the physical processes controlling decadal variations around the oceanic fronts of the North Pacific, where the signals of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are observed strongest. Over the subtropical front, realistic representation of the front structure and the heat transport by the ocean gyre circulation contributes to our high skill in predicting the decadal changes of the ocean temperature. Over the subarctic front, on the other hand, our error sensitivity analyses have revealed that the delayed response of the ocean to the Aleutian Low fluctuations controls the quality of our decadal hindcasts primarily through the oceanic Rossby wave adjustment. For the climate modelling and the initialization, particularly toward reducing prediction uncertainty over the subarctic front, we should further focus on these processes in the extratropical atmosphere and the tropical atmosphere-ocean coupling.
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[Remarks] ① ラニーニャ多発なぜ 熱帯の海異変 猛暑・厳冬に. 日本経済新聞2013年6月9日朝刊
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[Remarks] ② 地球温暖化予測における不確実性の定量化・低減化、独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構「地球環境シリーズ」講演会、2012年11月13日
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[Remarks] ③ 地球温暖化予測の不確実性を小さくしよう、独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構 横浜研究所一般公開、2012年9月29日
