2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Study on long term estimation of population in metropolises using complex network model
| Project/Area Number |
23760490
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
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| Research Institution | Kagawa University |
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Principal Investigator |
KII Masanobu 香川大学, 工学部, 准教授 (20426266)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2012
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| Keywords | 国土計画 / 都市人口 / Zipf 則 / 複雑ネットワーク |
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| Research Abstract |
This study aims to establish a method to estimate population of each city, which is the most basic data for strategic urban and transport planning. Past studies are not enoughverified with regard to empirical adequacy of estimated city size distributions. This study provides a new method to estimate the city population based on random growth networ k theory, whose estimates satisfies the empirical distribution of city size theoretically. Based on the proposed method, future populations of each major city over the world are estimated towards the end of 21stcentury. To achieve this study target, we have
1) updated global data of urban population and geographic information
2) modeled the mechanism of spatial growth of urban system
3) developed a new fitness index for city existence
4) verified the accuracy of population estimation of each city
5) estimated the population of each metropolis by 2100 based on SRES scenario.
As a result, we found that all the estimates satisfy the empirical distribution of city size, but the future trajectories are different by the scenarios. Under A2 scenario, in which the world population in 2100 exceeds 12 billion, the number of megacities which have more than 10 million people is estimated to be 134 in the end of this century. On the other hand, B1 scenario, in which the population is set to peak out around the mid of this century, is estimated to have only half of megacities under the A2 scenario. However, every scenario estimates that many megacities will appear in developing countries, especially in south Asia and Africa in this century. This result implies that huge investment on urban infrastructure will be needed in these regions.
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