2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in yields: potential and limitations
| Project/Area Number |
23880030
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Agricultural environmental engineering
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| Research Institution | National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences |
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Principal Investigator |
TOSHICHIKA Iizumi 独立行政法人農業環境技術研究所, 大気環境研究領域, 任期付研究員 (60616613)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2012
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| Keywords | 地球環境・温暖化影響 / 農業気象・微気象 |
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| Research Abstract |
This study assessed the reliability of the first global cropping prediction. Significant climate.crop relationships were found between the percentage changes in yield relative to that in the previous year and conditions of temperature and soil moisture level averaged over the 3-month period, commencing 3 months before harvesting and ending at harvesting. Using the derived statistical relationships and seasonal climatic forecasts, it is revealed that skillful within-season predictions of crop failures of wheat and rice are possible over approximately 20% of the global harvested area.
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