2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Mathematical and epidemiological analysis and prediction of mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma
| Project/Area Number |
23890129
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Public health/Health science
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| Research Institution | Hiroshima University |
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Principal Investigator |
AKITA Tomoyuki 広島大学, 大学院・医歯薬保健学研究院, 特任助教 (80609925)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2012
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| Keywords | 肝癌 / 年齢・時代・コホートモデル / 肝炎ウイルス / 数理疫学 |
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| Research Abstract |
We analyzed data of sex- and age-specific mortality due to HCC using mathematical and epidemiological models (an age-period-cohort model and an age-period-carrier rate model). These models had a high performance in reproducing HCC mortality (R2>0.99). However, predicted mortality in 2010 using a mortality data before 1990 had gap with observed mortality because of reflection of treatment effects.
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