The welfare effect of immigration policy for Japan: A quantitative analysis

2023 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

• Project/Area Number: 23K12458
• Research Institution: Akita University
• Principal Investigator: Wan Jiangyun (WanYunyun) 秋田大学, 教育文化学部, 講師 (30769914)
• Project Period (FY): 2023-04-01 – 2026-03-31
• Keywords: Immigration / unemployment / crimes / deportation

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

I worked with my co-author on the model of undocumented immigration with a specific focus on unemployment and crimes. It is a dynamic model in which unskilled native workers compete for jobs with immigrants in one or a group of industries. After developing the model, we examined the effect of raising minimum wages, implementing an anti-crime policy, and deporting immigrants who commit crimes. We found that the deportation and anti-crime policy can potentially increase the immigrant population, despite the contrary presumption. Raising minimum wages can also increase the number of employed workers, although additions to the labor force are due to immigration.

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

We have made much progress in developing of the basic model and interpretation of policy experiments. The main progress is due to the proof that the key variables of the model take steady-state equilibrium values without transition dynamic paths. This discovery has facilitated the proof of the existence of equilibria and evaluations of policy experiments.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

We have our first draft of the paper. My immediate goal is to revise and keep revising the draft so as to present it at seminars and economic conferences to get feedback from other economists until it becomes good enough to be submitted to an economic journal for publication. After completing and submitting the paper, I will modify the model to make it fit the Japanese industries and then get quantitative estimates of policy experiments.

Causes of Carryover

Last year my paper was accepted for presentation at the conference in New Zealand. However, there was no guarantee that my visa to enter New Zealand would be issued in time before the conference. For this reason, I had to withdraw.
This year, I plan to present the paper at economics conferences both in Japan and in other countries to get comments from fellow economists. I therefore anticipate use of part of my research money for travel and accommodation for presentations at such conferences. I may also need to buy data for calibration of my model to Japanese cases.