2023 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Development of general statistical methods for estimating gust wind speed in different urban morphology and weather conditions based on the Weibull distribution
| Project/Area Number |
23K13454
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| Research Institution | Kyushu University |
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Principal Investigator |
WANG WEI 九州大学, 総合理工学研究院, 助教 (20968169)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2023-04-01 – 2026-03-31
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| Keywords | Extreme wind speed / Weibull distribution / Gram Charlier series / Urban wind environment / Probability density / Large-eddy simulation |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Evaluating extreme wind speed in urban areas is important, since strong winds increase the risk of accidents and injuries of pedestrians. Although several statistical methods were developed to estimate extreme wind in previous studies, their robustness and accuracy remain unclear for the applications on the urban wind environment. In this year, the effectiveness of the Weibull distribution (KB, 2W and 3W) method and the Gram Charlier series (GCS) method was validated. The pedestrian-level wind environments of three idealized urban cases and one actual urban case were analyzed. The validation was performed using time-series data from the large-eddy simulations. The adaptive GCS method (GCS-A) and 3W method (the third-order Weibull distribution method) were found to be robust and accurate.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The gusty wind is very dangerous for structures and pedestrians. This research aims to develop general statistical methods for estimating the gust wind speed based on the Weibull distribution. The methods are expected to be general to urban morphologies and weather conditions. In this year, the applicability of the Weibull distribution (KB, 2W and 3W) method and the Gram Charlier series (GCS) method on idealized and actual urban cases were analyzed. The robustness and accuracy of various statistical methods for estimating the extreme wind speed in urban areas were confirmed. Although there are still some remaining issues, the overall progress of the research has been smooth. Future research will proceed gradually according to the outline plan.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
The Weibull distribution method have been developed based on the assumption that the random process of winds can be described by a particular unimodal PDF. However, these methods are less adaptive to the wind speed probability distribution with bimodal shapes. Moreover, the strict assumptions or requirements in the statistical methods also brought difficulties in the practical applications. Consequently, further research aims to develop general statistical methods based on the Weibull distribution by incorporating the mixture distribution function. In addition, the data-driven approach will be applied to connect the analytical study and practical application to relieve the strict assumptions or requirements in the statistical model.
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| Causes of Carryover |
For equipment cost, a data server, a laptop pc and two ultrasonic anemometers are required. The data server will be equipped for proceeding numerical simulations. Two ultrasonic anemometers will also be installed to measure the wind speed in actual urban areas. The laptop PC will be used for post processing for the datasets. For consumables, PC supplies will be bought for data storage. Experimental consumables are needed for conducting wind-tunnel experiment. For attending domestic and international annual conferences, the trip expenses are needed.
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