2023 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
A data-driven modeling approach for augmenting climate model simulations and its application to Pacific-Atlantic interbasin interactions
| Project/Area Number |
23H01250
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
RICHTER INGO 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), グループリーダー代理 (20649470)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
東塚 知己 東京大学, 大学院理学系研究科(理学部), 准教授 (40376538)
木戸 晶一郎 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), 研究員 (40878394)
時長 宏樹 九州大学, 応用力学研究所, 教授 (80421890)
小坂 優 東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 准教授 (90746398)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2023-04-01 – 2027-03-31
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| Keywords | El Nino / ENSO / tropical Atlantic / pacemaker experiment / interbasin interaction / linear inverse model / CMIP6 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
The targets set for fiscal year 2023 were all achieved. The coupled ocean-atmosphere control simulations with two global climate models were successfully performed and linear inverse models (LIMs) were constructed based on the model output. In addition, we have already started to construct LIMs from a large publicly available multi-model archive, which was originally planned to begin in fiscal year 2025. We have also performed more than 100 years of a pacemaker experiment in which the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic are restored to those of the freely coupled control simulation. This pacemaker experiment was originally planned for fiscal year 2024.
The impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on the tropical Atlantic has been analyzed and the results have been presented at several international and domestic workshops and conferences, including the Ocean Sciences Meeting in New Orleans, USA. A manuscript has been prepared and is currently under review at the Journal of Climate.
As planned in the research proposal, we have invited the international collaborator, Ping Chang from Texas A&M University, USA, to visit the PI’s institute. We used this opportunity to organize a small workshop with participants from several research institutions in Japan, and we also held an organizational meeting for the Kakenhi research project.
The PI has also published a paper on statistical forecast correction in Monthly Weather Review.
Overall, the activities in fiscal year 2023 were successful in laying the groundwork for the overarching goals of the research project.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The research activities are currently somewhat ahead of schedule compared to what was set out in the research proposal. In particular constructing LIMs for a large multi-model database has already been completed and a first evaluation has been performed. This activity was originally planned for fiscal year 2025. Moreover, the Atlantic pacemaker experiment planned for fiscal year 2024 was already started in fiscal year 2023 and has produced over 100 years of output. In addition, holding a one-day workshop was an activity that went above the initial research plan.
The manuscript on the influence of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on the tropical Atlantic took a bit longer to write than originally envisioned but we were nevertheless able to complete this task during fiscal year 2023.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
Given the smooth progress in the first year, we will continue to follow the research plan as set out in the research proposal. Atlantic pacemaker experiments have already been performed with one global climate model (the GFDL CM 2.1). In fiscal year 2024 we will also perform such an experiment with the other global climate model, the CESM2. These simulations will be performed by the international collaborator at Texas A&M University. The corresponding LIM experiments will be performed, and we will evaluate to what extent the LIM can reproduce the model behavior. Based on the outcome of this analysis we aim to write a manuscript and submit it to an international peer-reviewed journal. We are also planning to hold an in-person group meeting, possibly in connection with a one-day workshop, as we did in fiscal year 2023.
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