Prediction of maximum possible storm surges and damages induced by global warming in Tokyo, Ise and Osaka bays of Japan

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24360199
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Aichi University of Technology
• Principal Investigator: YASUDA Takashi 愛知工科大学, 工学部, 教授 (10093329)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): YOSHINO Jun 岐阜大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (70377688) ; MURAKAMI Tomokazu 独立行政法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究ユニット, 主任研究員 (80420371) ; SHIMOKAWA Shinya 独立行政法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究ユニット, 主任研究員 (40360367) ; IIZUKA Satoshi 独立行政法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究ユニット, 主任研究員 (40414403) ; KAWASAKI Koji 名城大学, 自然災害リスク軽減研究センター, 特任教授 (20304024) ; OGASAWARA Toshinori 岩手大学, 工学部, 准教授 (60374865)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 高潮災害 / 台風災害 / 地球温暖化 / 高潮氾濫 / 被災限界

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A dynamic modeling system incorporating an atmosphere-ocean-wave-land coupled model and a typhoon potential bogus scheme have been developed to calculate potential maximum storm surges in three largest bays of Japan under the present and future climates. This system clarifies the potential maximum storm surge heights in these bays, as 3.3m in Tokyo bay under the present climate and 4.1m under the future climate. Further, a numerical simulation system for storm surge disasters has been developed by coupling storm surge currents in sea and flood currents on land, based on the hydraulic experiments. This system shows that flood damages are caused by potential maximum storm surges in the Koto delta located at interior of Tokyo bay. Damages of buildings caused by tsunami attacking Tohoku region in 2011 are found to be classified into 5 types of disaster. These study results suggest that the damages due to storm surge flood could be predicted.

Free Research Field

工学